The worst one-day decline in modern history for the S&P/TSX composite index occurred in 1987, when the index plunged 11.3%. In mid-morning trading on Monday, the index was close to that record, down 10.8%. As of noon, it was trading down 5.8%, which ironically presents a huge relief for investors.

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The TSX is officially trading in record territory, with energy, materials and financials leading the pack.

Gordon Pape wrote on Monday in his article entitled “What bear market?” (GlobeinvestorGOLD May 12, 2008): “So it's time to break out the bubbly. A new record high is always worth a toast but when it happens while most of the world is battling market downturns, it represents a remarkable accomplishment.”

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As of today, that translates into a gain of about 18%! This seemingly outrageous prediction was the headline that appeared in the financial post, dated March 29, 2008. The full article can be found here.

The man behind the prediction is Ron Meisels, president of independent market research firm Phases & Cycles. While many fear a U.S. recession is at hand, Mr. Meisels is one of the very few that suggests a new bull market has begun and that the index would likely continue to rise until at least September.

So, how outrageous is this claim? Let’s review some of the most recent “bad news” in the media.

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